The Urban Redevelopment Authority just released the 1st Quarter 2018 real estate statistics last Friday (April 27, 2018).
The media, analysts and industry stakeholders can interpret the way they like. But numbers don’t lie. What are the numbers telling us? Where is the hidden time bomb?
I will be sharing 3 things with you in this podcast:
1) The 3 different property price indexes in the market;
2) How to read the URA quarterly real estate numbers; and
3) My personal analyses on non-landed private residential prices, rental, vacancy and supply.
Enjoy the youtube video and let me know your thoughts.
Remember to subscribe to my YouTube channel.
Kelvin Ng says
Hi Vina
Thank you very much for the podcast.
Concise and balanced analysis.
I am now motivated to learn more in statistics to understand the behaviour of property segement as opposed to propaganda from from other stake holders . Regards Kelvin ng
Property Soul says
Hi Kelvin, the URA Q1 data are very straightforward in showing the facts. It’s just the industry stakeholders interpreted them with their own interests and agenda in mind.
I just happen to have the luxury to tell the truth because I have no new project to launch, no agent commission to make, and no advertising dollars or space for any property ads.
Sg investor says
Love your analysis!
However, URA data may be a lagging instead of leading indicator.
Twin Vew, in West Coast, just sold more than 87% (400) units at 1,400 psf. I’m concerned, due to my cautiousness, I may have missed the boat,
In fact, for OCR regions, prices of new launches have not come down and had I taken the risk to buy at 1,300 -1,400psf, I may be smiling myself to the bank.
New launches in OCR – park colonial, garden residences, woodleigh residences may be priced much higher and existing sellers of resale units will mark the prices of their units accordingly, in this way, the whole market and property prices move up. We should consider ourselves fortunate if we can get a unit near the MRT in OCR at 1,300 or even 1,200 psf.
My bearishness has caused me to overlook the upturn in prices. What the newspapers predicted so far is right and my foresight was wrong.
SG investor says
Sorry, I meant RCR.
Property Soul says
This is not surprising. Buyers will all rush in when the market is hot.
We saw the same thing happening in 1995 to 1997, 2000 and the last peak in 2011 – 2013. During that time, can you still recall how people who bought the units told the media enthusiastically that they were “lucky” to be early in the queue, to be picked at the ballot, and submit the blank cheque to their agent in advance?
What happened to these people afterwards? Remember people who bought new projects in the mid-1990s told almost 20 years to break-even. How many have the resilience, patience and holding power to wait for two decades?
If you bought your home in 2005, did you regret missing the boat when the market was hot 10 years ago, or should you be grateful that you held your horses at that time?
The property market is a cycle. The same thing will happen again and again.
Property Soul says
The latest SRX Private Resale Non-landed Prices shows April prices are up but volumes are down.
This is exactly what I pointed out in the podcast. Price up and volume down implies that the market is only on a dead cat bounce and far from a market recovery. Note that the slight price increase only happens in regions where there is new launch to stimulate buying interest.in resale.
https://www.srx.com.sg/research/47992/private-resale-non-landed-prices-up-06-in-april-volume-slides-down-by-17
Jason says
Vina, thank you for cutting through the BS we are subjected to everyday by those with vested interests. Will you continue to produce these kinds of podcasts on a regular basis (monthly? quarterly?)? For the sanity of those of us who refuse to buy into the propaganda l, I hope you do.
Property Soul says
Thank you Jason. Quarterly or monthly only? You are so lenient. Michael Cho from UrbanZoom is the one who suggested that I should open a YouTube channel. He said I have to do at least one podcast a week. Well, I will try my best then.
Property Soul says
SRX’s latest figures on non-landed private rent drops 0.9% and rental volume falls 10.8%. The private rental market is getting worse. Where have all the tenants gone?
https://www.srx.com.sg/research/48022/non-landed-private-rents-decrease-by-09-hdb-rents-increase-by-04-in-april-2018
SG investor says
Thanks for the reply.
I was researching back into 2005 and to me, there was a perfect “storm” of factors that contributed to price cuts that are not present in the current environment.
Let’s take an example.
From what I read, back in 2005, there were more than 400 units in Costa De Sol (built by Li Ka Shing’s company) that were unsold. These were built in late 1990s and more than 5 years have passed, in the face of more upcoming supply, the developer cut prices by up to 30%.
Prices were also cut for Sanctuary Green (built by Guocoland).
Qn:
are we seeing the same environment in 2018?
Which project launch has massive number of units that were unsold for more than 5 years?
I don’t see any.
Qn: there are figures of 30,000 vacant units.
But so far, I have not been able to pinpoint, where are these vacant units?
are they in far-flung outlying areas?
are most of these units possibly in CCR – whereas most of Singaporean buyers are interested in RCR?
good units e.g. near MRT are likely not vacant and do not come cheap
There was a mini correction in 2016, but sad to say, I missed the boat.
Markets moved very quickly and now we have to pay market price.
Unless a recession hit Singapore (in the next 2 -3 years, which is very unlikely).
If a recession were to hit Singapore, lots of people will suffer too, do we really want a recession in Singapore?
Property Soul says
In Singapore, projects with units unsold after 5 years are automatically “deregistered” and struck off the record. That’s why you can’t find them in the URA list any more. But some property agencies claimed that they keep their own lists, especially the agency which helped to market that particular project last time.
Are you sure you can’t find the unsold units by projects? They are all published online. Just check the URA website under the section “projects in the pipelines”. URA lists all the projects one by one with the number of unsold units. The link is here -> https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Property/Property-Data/Private-Residential-Properties
History shows that economic recessions and market crashes can happen any time. It is not about we want or don’t want. It is not under our control. As investors, the only thing we can do is to study history, learn the lessons, monitor the market and take precautions to avoid big losses.
Whether other people want to take the risk to enter the market when prices are high is up to individuals. For me, I won’t regret not making the most profit. I am just afraid of losing what I have already made.
Research back to 2005 is not enough. You have to study at least 3 market cycles. Personally, I think 2013 to 2018 is very similar to 1994 to 1998.