When the music stops playing

Centaline is the biggest property agency in Shenzhen. At its peak, the market leader expands into a full force of 380 branches, employing more than a thousand agents.

But that is before the Chinese government’s repeated measures to curb property speculation. The agency’s branches are cut significantly this year, with a last count of down to 60.

Shenzhen used to be one of the hottest cities for property investors in mainland China. Now property purchases in these cities are dampened by tightened loan approval from local banks.

To make matters worse, developers are aggressively pushing their new flats with big discounts. In some areas, brand new properties are priced even lower than 2nd hand ones!

When the Shenzhen property market was still upbeat last year, there was an average monthly sales transactions of 12,000 for 2nd hand properties.

In the first six months of 2011, the number dropped to 7,500.

Since August this year, transactions fell at an alarming rate, down to 3,000 transactions each month.

Property prices are predicted to drop another 11 percent after October. The dire situation will remain at least until Chinese New Year.

Do you still remember that, not long before, some people say the China property market will never bust?

How many times we hear people saying that this time it will be different, that their country is an exception, and that this market will never collapse?

There are no differences. Differences can only be found in the damage done once the bubble bursts.